What Just Happened?

This is the question the Democratic Party should be asking. It's déjà vu all over again, because something like this happened in 2016. And in 1992. And 1980. So, it didn't "just" happen. I'll exclaim.

Source

WASHINGTON DC (GLOB) - To borrow a quote from Battlestar Galactica:

I mused in 2016 that no “expert” or member of mainstream media understood what was happening. You can read those thoughts here: Post Election Ruminations. I’ll give you the Reader’s Digest version: In 2016 Trump was a middle finger by the unwashed masses to both parties. Those with memories will recall that both the Democrat and Republican party leadership were horrified. I closed that article with this: I am certain the predominant emotion from the political elite was, “The peasants are revolting.” And they meant that in every sense of the word.

But, the “this” that just happened didn’t start there. It started in 1980.

Regardless of what you think of Reagan and his administration, his undeniable poise and grace and civility is on display here. He treats the voting public like intelligent people that have a stake in the country, and asks them a question and suggests what to do depending on their answer to the question, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” He acknowledges their lived experience, recognizing that some may answer “Yes” to his question. He doesn’t tell them what they should answer, he doesn’t tell them what to think. He asks them to think - he has faith in the common sense of the voter. There is no doom spewing, no frenzy, no ridicule, no name calling. Just class coupled with respect for the people he wants to serve.

12 years later, in 1992, James Carville, in his crass ugly way, would replace Reagan’s question with a statement. George H. W. Bush was president. He was the successor to a very popular president, Ronald Reagan. And he had just successfully transacted a military intervention in the Middle East that stabilized the region and had earned him the respect of most of the civilized world, including the Middle East.

But Clinton was elected. Why?

“It’s the economy, stupid.”

This phrase helped to propel Clinton into office. The voting populace was not particularly interested in foreign affairs; they did NOT feel they were better off after four years of Bush 41. And they didn’t listen when Bush told them the economy was fine, would heal, and things were on track. Hold that thought.

After Clinton we had George W Bush. Many believe that election was stolen, but then 9/11 happened and foreign affairs were on everyone’s mind and he was reelected.

Obama took over from there, with vague ear worms of “Change you can believe in” a genius catch phrase since it says nothing at all. And of course, “Hope.” What the hell is change you can believe in? What change? If it is actual change that you can see and feel, what is there to believe? Nothing. And of course you can hope. For - something.

And, I don’t think you can discount the Reaganesque presidential persona possessed by Obama. But, there was the beginning of condescension underneath. And a certain loss of believable change, and what were we hoping for? Oh yeah, free health care. You do know a fairly large subset of people were hoping and believing that Obamacare was free health care, not mandatory insurance.

The stage seemed set for the ascendancy of the Democratic party, fueled by their belief that the coalition of the perpetually offended and mindlessly hopeful would hold.

But we had the Trump anomaly which I mentioned earlier was simply a middle finger by fly-over states and and a much larger percentage of people who were not perpetually offended by anything, hadn’t seen any change they could believe in, and realized that Obamacare was not free.

These voters just wanted to live their lives and not be called stupid misogynist racists by people who just didn’t know them. And worse, the sense received by those voters is that not only did Democrat Party elites not know them, they didn’t want to know these deplorable people who didn’t matter anyway.

I’m telling you, the smug was thick.

Trump’s 2016 election also exposed the fact that this country no longer has anything approaching a non-partisan, just-the-facts, mainstream media. I’ll never forget watching “journalists” crying because Hillary was not elected. And spare me about Fox being fair and balanced. Maybe a counterbalance.

Hillary was supposed to be elected. The media told us so, and described how ludicrous it was for anyone to think Trump had a chance. For many, this obvious media bias was the tipping point in a populous that was beginning to wonder if they could believe anything reported as news anymore. Hence the rise of right-wing alternate media.

After Trump was elected, both parties responded badly. Republicans went into a bit of a tail-spin wondering what the hell just happened. Then the party went into what I can only describe as a variation of Stockholm syndrome.

Democrats responded with what would become their battle cry. Misogyny and racism are the only reasons Trump was elected.

And the Democrat leadership refused to look at themselves and address the rather obvious failings of their appeal to a bigoted base. They doubled down on their elitism and hubris. And yes, I said bigoted.

Which, oddly and counter-intuitively is how Biden won the nomination for the Democrats, seemingly coming out of nowhere. He was just a regular guy, it seemed, and offered a little less elitism and a bit of an “aw shucks” vibe.

With the country not doing so bad, the only focus was the so very unpresidential actions of Trump. Honestly, did we want a president that appeared more worried about slapping back on Twitter than anything else? Someone that seemed so petulant? Well, most of the country did not. And all forms of media were complicit, as we now know, in curating news and opinion, taking advantage of all the soft balls being thrown to them by Trump himself. But make no mistake, Biden was perceived as a move to center.

Now, if you have not watched the video of Reagan in that debate, please do, and if you have, please watch it again.

Reagan had the look and feel of what I want in a President. Dignified. Confident. Respectful. Civil. Classy. Trump is the antithesis of all this, and I believe that is the true reason he lost in 2020. If someone had taken away his phone and kept him from opening his mouth, he would have been reelected. But, he was crass, ugly, crude, and well, unpresidential. The country, aside from Covid, was in decent shape. Nothing to really complain about. So, Biden could just come in with his “C’mon man,” hayseed sensibilities and look and feel presidential.

Trump defeated himself.

Biden was elected and several things were in place and then added that would result in defeat for the Democrats. Covid was still raging away, and decisions were made that would have dramatic impact on the nation’s economy. He did all the “green” stuff, stopping oil development. He did stupid stuff - e.g. the withdrawal from Afghanistan, an unmitigated disaster. People were out of work, gas prices rose with the trickle down effect of increasing the cost of everything from just filling your car to grocery prices due to transportation costs, factory energy costs, etc. And he essentially told people in other countries it was Morning in America and come on over, leading to a cluster eff on the border.

And despite the assurance of, well, all the experts telling people that inflation was actually good, that the economy was great, that things were going according to plan in the world, etc., many many people were having to make decisions about whether to pay the water bill or buy groceries. I had that conversation with a couple of people and was scoffed at. I was also told that low unemployment causes inflation and other nonsense. And lets all quit pretending that Biden’s border policy was not a complete and utter disaster.

But, back to the economy, there are a whole bunch of factors that cause inflation, and many are independent of whichever administration is in power. I asked ChatGPT for a list and found this particular factor to be the relevant one today:

2. Cost-Push Inflation

• Happens when production costs rise, leading businesses to increase prices to maintain profit margins. Key drivers include:

  • Rising wages: Higher labor costs for businesses.

  • Increased raw material costs: Examples include spikes in oil prices or agricultural products.

  • Supply chain disruptions: Limited availability of goods increases production costs.

I think we can point to how this country dealt with Covid for all of the above. Covid was not administration specific since it spanned both Trump and Biden. But, people don’t care about causes, they care about whether or not things are getting better. So, they look to the current administration.

I had asked the reader to hold a thought made about Bush being defeated by Clinton. My point is simply this: Most of the country is not better off today than four years ago. It does not matter why, what matters is who is currently in charge, and does it feel like things are headed in the right direction. The voters in 2024 said no, I’m not better off.

2024 was a vote of no confidence in the Democratic Party.

Carville focused on one word that mattered most to the voting population - economy.

However, I think there are three key words that sum up why Trump beat Harris.

1. It’s the economy stupid

2. It’s the immigration stupid

3. It’s the condescension stupid.

I mentioned above that during Hillary’s campaign, the smug was thick. Even dumb people recognize condescension. And they don’t like it. Will the Democrats take the opportunity this time to look at their party and recall that they serve the voters and not vice versa? Or will they double down with an Emperor’s New Clothes mindset, and just keep strutting around like they own the place?

I’d love to know your thoughts.