Canadian leaders say Trump’s talk about Canada becoming the 51st state isn’t funny anymore

Was it ever?

Oh, Canada

TORONTO (AP) — (GLOB) — It started as a remark over dinner at Mar-a-Lago. Trump suggested that Canada could become the 51st state. Trudeau, who had hastened to meet Trump shortly after the U.S. election, dismissed the comment as humor. But for many Canadian leaders, the joke has worn thin.

The Canadian politicians who have not resigned don’t think it’s funny.

“There is no chance of us becoming the 51st state. I think that this is beneath a president of the United States,” Miller said. “I said a few weeks ago that this whole thing was like a South Park episode.” - Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller

The sentiment seems clear: Trump’s suggestion, whether serious or not, reflects poorly on diplomacy and respect between allies. And yet, Miller’s need to assert the obvious—that Canada will not become a U.S. state—raises an uncomfortable question: Who, exactly, is he trying to convince?

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A Joke Taken Too Far?

The absurdity of the situation was highlighted by Canada’s Green Party leader, Elizabeth May. She invited California, Oregon and Washington to become Canada’s 11th province. This Pacific Bloc of course would dramatically change the shape of the North American political map. It would certainly make the next election interesting.

Humor aside, the exchange highlights a deeper tension. Trump’s rhetoric about Canada—like his musings on buying Greenland or revisiting control of the Panama Canal—appear less about serious policy and more about pandering to his “America First” base. It’s bombastic, headline-grabbing, and calibrated to resonate with voters rather than diplomats.

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The Economics of "America First"

Trump’s remarks about Canada’s relevance as a trading partner raise serious questions about his grasp of economic realities. Consider this: Canada is the United States’ largest supplier of crude oil and petroleum products, accounting for 63% of U.S. oil imports in 2023. That’s nearly a quarter of the nation’s total oil consumption.

Canada is also a top exporter of automotive vehicles and parts, as well as natural gas—essential commodities for the U.S. economy. “Maybe we don’t need Canada,” Trump suggested. But with energy security and supply chains increasingly fragile, it’s hard to see how cutting ties with a friendly, resource-rich neighbor would benefit anyone.

Perhaps Trump’s confidence stems from the belief that Canada depends on U.S. markets as much as the U.S. depends on Canadian resources. Or perhaps it’s a matter of leverage. Trump’s tariff threats in the past forced Trudeau to seek concessions, and some speculate that the pressure contributed to his decision to step down. Message received?

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Bully or Strategist?

Is Trump’s approach to foreign policy deliberate or instinctive? His critics often portray him as a bully—an opportunist who wields power to humiliate weaker opponents. But the “bully” label might oversimplify his strategy.

For instance, his tactics evoke a mix of instinctual maneuvering and calculated brinkmanship. By raising the prospect of Canada’s “statehood,” Trump isn’t just making a bad joke; he’s sending a signal about future negotiations. Whether on border security, trade, or energy cooperation, his messaging seems aimed at managing expectations—for both U.S. allies and his own supporters.

Of course, this kind of posturing is not without precedent. Ronald Reagan famously joked during a sound check about outlawing the Soviet Union. The difference, however, lies in the delivery. Where Reagan’s humor was carefully calibrated, Trump’s remarks feel impulsive—a mix of entertainment and provocation that blurs the line between strategy and spectacle.

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Beyond the Joke

If Trump’s comment about Canada becoming the 51st state was intended as a joke, it’s worth asking why it landed so poorly. Perhaps it’s because it coincides with real concerns about U.S.-Canada relations. Trade tensions, border policies, and the lingering effects of Trump’s presidency have left many Canadians wary of their southern neighbor.

Moreover, the broader geopolitical context matters. President Biden and Vice President Harris have all but disappeared from the global stage. Trump almost necessarily filled the power vacuum. World leaders, including Canada’s are already acting as though Trump has returned to power. Effectively, he has.

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A Wild Ride Ahead

As the world watches, Trump’s remarks about Canada’s statehood may be less about policy and more about positioning. Whether he’s a “prison-yard instinctual” politician or a master strategist remains unclear. What’s certain, however, is that his rhetoric—ridiculous as it may seem—has a way of reshaping conversations and recalibrating expectations.

For Canada, the best response may not be indignation but careful navigation. After all, the next four years are shaping up to be a diplomatic rollercoaster. And like it or not, Canada is along for the ride.